Session has committed Southminster to a course of growth, setting a goal of 165 in average worship attendance by the start of school year 2013. Even without the "headwinds" represented by the charts below, an increase of 50 people in average attendance over so short a period represents a significant challenge. As part of our ongoing conversation, we will look at the following challenges to growth at our Town Hall on Sunday, June 13.

In this first chart, the yellow line represents a "steady state universe" in which 115 people attend worship every Sunday. In this perfect universe, no one dies, no one's worship needs change, no children grow up, no one leaves for college and career. Obviously, this future does not exist. The green line represents regular growth over a 20-year period, adding enough people (and losing none), so that by the end of 20 years Southminster's average attendance is 165. This universe too does not exist, because it assumes the same sort of "steady state universe" described before, both for those who are already attending and for those who will come to worship with us. The other two lines represent the entropy we face if the next 20 years are like the previous 20. The red line is based on Southminster's own demographic make up, with 40 people who now attend already over the age of 70. Life expectancy in the U.S. being what it is, most of these people will probably not be attending weekly at the end of the 20 year period envisioned here. The blue line represents continued denominational decline, which has been the reality for mainline churches in the U.S., including the Presbyterian Church (USA).

The chart immediately above helps us envision the kind of growth that will be required to meet our goal of 165 in average worship attendance. In this case, the red line represents a base line of 115. The blue line envisions adding 50 people over 20 years, without accounting for demographic pressures against such growth. (This is what most of us envision when we talk about growing to 165.) The yellow and green lines on this chart show the sort of real growth that must be achieved in order to reach the goal of 165 in average worship attendance, while accounting for very real demographic challenges.

So, how do we get there? We will build on the experience with Loving Hearts to create new children's ministries and continue to focus on the basics of genuine discipleship: a revival of hospitality, worship, faith formation, and mission and service, all within a spirit of extravagant generosity.

Join us in the adventure! Volunteer to help us reach our goal.